Friday, October 4, 2013

Game Previews - Week 5

A very abbreviated preview this week...
Note - most games are in the afternoon, with only the TAMK-MSU game at night.

Angelo State (1-3) at McMurry (1-3) - 2:00
Angelo Game Notes
Live Stats
Live Audio
The Warhawks got into the win column last week with a 53-27 decision over Oklahoma Panhandle State.  Gabe Rodriguez threw for 423 yards and 7 TDs and Chris Simpson and Paxton Grayer combined for 223 yards rushing.  The defense did allow 434 yards to OPSU, including 203 on the ground.  For the season, they are giving up 47 points and 553 yards per game.  The run defense has been especially pourous, giving up 330 yards per game and 6.3 per rush.

That should bode well for ASU, as they lead the LSC with 266 yards rushing per game.  Look for a big day for Calhoun, Smith and Washington.  But while we think ASU will definitely win this game, the margin could be determined by how well the Rams pass defense plays.  Angelo romps, 49-21.

Texas A&M-Commerce (2-2) at SE Oklahoma (1-3) - 2:00
TAMC Game Notes
Live Stats
Live Audio
The Savages  Savage Storm have had a tough time defensively so far in 2013.  They have give up at least 42 points in every game (45.2 average).  They have been unable to stop either the run (181 yds per game, 5.5 per carry) or the pass (341 yds per game, 143.5 Efficiency rating).  The offense has moved the ball well (467 yards per game), and they scored 56, 34 and 35 points in their first three games. Seven turnovers last week resulted in a 45-7 blowout loss despite outgaining OBU in yardage.

Should be a lot of points scored in this one.  Tyrik Rollison should have a fun day and continue his pace to break the Lions' single season passing records for yards and TDs.  TAMC wins a shootout, 42-35.

Central State (0-4) at #4 West Texas A&M (4-0) - 3:00
WT Game Notes
Live Stats
Live Audio
Central State comes into this game winless and has every game by at least 21 points.  They are averaging 13 points, while giving up 48.8.  They are rushing for 167 yards and passing for 96.  They are allowing 302 yards rushing and 172 passing.  WT on the other hand averages 53 points and 508 yards per game (99 rushing 409 passing), while allowing 22 points and 312 yards (105 rushing and 207 passing).

Dustin Vaughan should become WT's all-time leading passer this weekend, needing 116 to overtake Taylor Harris.  He has a good shot at 10,000 career yards as well - 316 yards gets that milestone out of the way.

Look for the WT bench to empty in this one, possibly early in the second half.  WT continues rolling, 56-10.

#22 Tarleton State (3-0) at Eastern New Mexico (1-2) - 3:00
TSU Game Notes
ENMU Game Notes
Live Stats
TSU Audio
It's funny how just a few plays can make the difference between a successful season and a disappointing one.  Eastern New Mexico could easily be 3-0 if they could have converted a fourth and one in the season opener and not lost 3 fumbles at UIW last week.  Tarleton State could just as easily be 0-3, having outscored their three opponents by a total of 7 points in regulation.  But the reality is that Tarleton is undefeated and ranked in the AFCA top 25 and favored by everyone in this game.

On paper the teams look pretty even, with the biggest differences on defense with Tarleton quite a bit better against the run and ENMU with better passing defense stats.  So with no clear paper advantage, why is Tarleton favored? Simply put, they have played, and found a way to win against three teams that are better than any ENMU has played (and found a way to lose to).

Tarleton wins a pretty good game, TSU 35-21.

Texas A&M-Kingsville (2-1) at Midwestern State (2-1) - 7:00
Game to be broadcast on Comcast Houston
MSU Game Notes
TAMK Game Notes
MSU Audio
MSU Live Stats

Wow, not only did the wheels come off, but the engine fell out as well last week for the Javelinas. At the 10:52 mark of the second quarter, they had just tied the game at 7 and had a 131-75 advantage in yardage.  From that point on they were outscored 62-0 and outgained 344-57, turned the ball over twice and allowed a kick return for a TD to open the second half.  All in all it was the worst home loss in team history.  The QB position was unclear coming into the season and with multiple injuries, it is even more so now. Word out of Kingsville is that true freshman Caleb Bedford will have his redshirt removed and will start his first college game Saturday.

Midwestern State has yet to show the same form we saw from them the last two years.  They are running the ball well (247 yards), but not getting much from their passing game.  The end result so far is an offense not scoring as much as in 2011 (48.6) and 2012 (38.6).  The defense is about on par with the past two seasons allowing 26 points and 352 yards per game.

Look for the Mustangs to try and make a statement this week for a couple of reasons.  Former offensive coordinator Roderick Taylor is now in the same position for Kingsville, and more importantly, because they need to pick up the pace this year if they are to contend for a playoff spot.  Winning by 10 at West Georgia and 6 at Commerce (after beating them by a combined 59 points in 2012) does not appear to be the makings of a playoff team.  On the flip side, Kingsville needs to rebound from last week's shellacking and build some confidence heading into the second half of the season.

At home, look for the Mustangs to take this one, 31-17.

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Lone Star Conference

Angelo State University

Cameron University

Eastern New Mexico University

Texas A&M-Commerce

Tarleton State University

Texas A&M-Kingsville

Texas Woman's College

University of Texas of the Permian Basin

West Texas A&M University

Western New Mexico