Friday, October 30, 2015

Week Nine Game Previews

Official NCAA Super Region 4 Rankings

  1. Ferris State 7-0
  2. Texas A&M-Commerce 7-1
  3. Midwestern State 7-1
  4. Grand Valley State 7-1
  5. Colorado State Pueblo 7-1
  6. Ashland 8-0
  7. Indianapolis 7-0
  8. Colorado Mines 7-1
  9. Colorado Mesa 7-1
  10. Eastern New Mexico 5-2


Computer Rankings and Predictions
Massey

Texas A&M-Commerce moves up to #2, Midwestern State is #4, ENMU moves up 8 places to  #7, Angelo State dropped to #14, West Texas A&M is #25, Tarleton is #39, Texas A&M-Kingsville is #68

Other Super Region 4 teams
CSU-Pueblo is #5
Ferris State is #6
Colorado Mines is #15
Mesa State is #16
Grand Valley is #17
Ashland is #26
Ohio Dominican is #34
Indianapolis is #45

Massey predictions for this week's games (last week they were 4-)
MSU wins 34-10 over TAMK
ENMU wins 37-34 over WTAM
ASU wins 45-38 over TSU
Sam Houston 38-35 over TAMC


Compughterratings.com
LSC - #2 Midwestern State, #3 Texas A&M-Commerce, #21 ENMU, #36 Angelo State, #37 West Texas A&M, #78 Tarleton State, #108 Texas A&M-Kingsville

SR Teams
#5 Ferris State
#8 CSUP
#13 Mesa St.
#20 Grand Valley
#22 Mines
#30 Ashland
#46 Indianapolis

This Week's game predictions 
ASU 51-36 over TSU
MSU 33-11 over TAMK
WTAM 35-33 over ENMU
SHSU 41-31 over TAMC


Atomic Football Predictions
ASU 48-35 over TSU
MSU 38-13 over TAMK
ENMU 35-34 over WTAM
SHSU 39-32 over TAMC


This week's games

Texas A&M-Kingsville at # Midwestern State
Game Notes - TAMK
Game Notes - MSU
Live Stats
Live Video

The Javelinas went into the half tied 14-14 with WTAM, but the offense was a no-show after the first quarter as TAMK lost 24-14.  After tying the game at 14 early in the second quarter, the offense with backup Steve Dorman under center could must just 65 yards on 29 plays with 3 turnovers, plus one on a kick return.  Despite that, they trailed by just 7 points until WT kicked a FG with 2:35 left in the game.

The Mustangs suffered their first loss of the season, dropping a 27-14 decision at Texas A&M-Commerce.  The defense played pretty well, especially tightening up in the second half, limiting the Lions to just over 100 yards after the break.  The offense never really got untracked with just one drive of more than 50 yards and six turnovers.  Despite that, MSU trailed by just 21-14 with 5 minutes left in the third quarter.

Both starting QBs were knocked out last week, and it is unclear who will get the starts this week.  Even with that facto, don't look for such lackluster play this week.  Midwestern is more likely to rebound and get ready to host a first round LSC playoff game next week.  The Javelinas will look to continue to improve on last year's performance and keep this close for a while.  MSU 35-17.

Tarleton State at Angelo State
Game Notes - TSU
Game Notes - ASU
Live Stats
Live Video

The Texans set a new single game record with 84 points in last week's win over Panhandle State.  The offense racked up 658 yards, scoring TDs on 12 of their 15 possessions.  The Texans did not let up the whole game.  In the fourth quarter and with a 63-40 lead, the Texans passed 8 times on a 10 play 56 yard TD drive, then 3 more times in the first six plays of a 11 play 75 yard drive, and closing out the game with a 6 yard TD run with just over a minute to play and a 77-47 lead.  Last year, against Texas A&M-Kingsville, with a 59-14 lead, TSU passed the ball 7 times on a 9 play drive to open the fourth quarter, and on the final drive, ran the ball on fourth down for a TD to get to 80.  As Bob Eblen noted on D2Football.com, it is puzzling to see scores run up like this.

Just four weeks ago, the Rams were ranked #8 in the nation.  With three losses in the last four games, they find themselves out of the rankings and almost certainly out of the NCAA playoffs.  The Rams gave up 583 yards rushing and ENMU scored on their first four possessions, building up a 28-7 lead early in the second quarter.  The Rams would get no closer than 13 points the rest of the game.  Angelo needs to win to make the top half of the LSC playoff bracket, but the postseason looks to be lost, unless they are invited to play in a bowl game

If you love offense, this is the game to go to this weekend.  ASU might let it all hang out, allowing Kyle Washington to pass a couple of Buffaloes ahead of him on the LSC passing charts (he needs 1,252 for Keith Null and 1,282 for Taylor Harris and TSU has the LSC's worst pass efficiency rating by a large margin (173.7)  Tarleton will try to knock Angelo into the bottom half of the LSC playoffs.  Look for the Rams to edge the Texans, 56-49.


Eastern New Mexico at West Texas A&M


The Wagon Wheel is a series of streaks, with just two instances of a single win and just one instance of a two game streak.  ENMU has three 3 game streaks (including the current streak) and one 4 game streak and WTAM has the longest streak at 7.  The game usually features a team in the playoff race and the other playing the spoiler.  The roles are reversed this year, as ENMU, ranked #10 in SR4 could make the playoffs, but will have to run the table to do so.

Running is key.  The Greyhounds lead the LSC in rushing and are #3 in the nation.  Eight different Greyhounds have 100+ yards on the season with Kamal Cass (894 yds, 13 TDs) leading the way.  WT's run defense is allowing 192 yards per game, but allowed the LSC's #2 and #3 rushing offenses about 250 per game.  WT has the LSC's leading rusher in Geremy Aldridge-Mitchell, but the rest of the team is averaging just 40 yards.  They probably won't be much passing, with the bottom two teams in passing yards in the LSC.  ENMU just doesn't throw much (12.5 attempts per game), but when they do they have been efficient (178.2 rating, #1 in LSC).  WT still throws it about 35 times per game, but have not been efficient (last in LSC, 117.4 rating.  In fact, WT averages under 6 yards per attempt, while ENMU is over 11.

The Greyhounds should win this one, and it looks like they should comfortably.  But the Wagon Wheel seems to level the playing field, with the winner having to earn it, sometimes with a bit of luck.  Still, this could be the Greyhound's year.  ENMU 45-28.



#8 Texas A&M-Commerce at #10 Sam Houston State



Former LSC member Sam Houston comes into the game on a five game winning streak, albeit against teams with a combined 11-25 record.  They rank #2 in FCS with 47.6 points per game and also #2 with 548 yards per game, 255 rushing and 293 passing.  The defense is allowing 26.4 points, 371 yards with 194 rushing and 177 passing.  The Bearkats have become perennial playoff participants, making the playoffs the last 7 years, going to the semifinals last year and the national championship game in 2011 & 2012 losing to eventual national champion North Dakota State all three times.

The Lions continue to win in somewhat of an understated manner.  The offense is good, #10 nationally in scoring and #17 in total offense.  The balance (235 yds rushing, 250 passing) keeps opposing defenses off balance.  The defense has been okay overall (52nd in scoring, 80th in yards allowed), but really good at times.  Last week, the defense sprung TAMC to a 21 point lead over MSU and kept the Mustangs offense from getting into a groove all night.  One stat that has really made a difference is turnover margin - the Lions lead the nation with a +18 (2.25 per game) advantage.

While this game has no bearing on the DII regional playoff rankings, the Lions still have a couple of goals.  First, avoid injuries - they need to be healthy heading into next week's LSC playoff opener.  Second, if they can win this game or at least play it close, the confidence boost could really help them the rest of the season. Prediction - Lions do keep it close, but Bearkats to strong and deep.  SHSU 35-28.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

LSC Basketball Preseason Polls Released

Men's Basketball: Preseason poll and awards revealed

Tarleton State earned top billing according to the 2015-16 Lone Star Conference men's basketball preseason poll announced Wednesday.
      

The league's preseason polls reflect the opinions of LSC head coaches and sports information directors, plus various media representatives from throughout the region.
      

TSU claimed the top spot with 19 first-place votes and 173 points after winning the LSC Championship last season with a 12-2 league mark.  The Texans set a school record with 31 wins and reached the NCAA Division II Final Four for the second time in school history.
      

Midwestern State finished second with 151 points including the remaining three first-place votes.  Angelo State was third with 120 points, followed by defending tournament champions Texas A&M-Commerce in fourth (109).  West Texas A&M was picked fifth with 84 points with Cameron sixth (72), Texas A&M- Kingsville (55), and Eastern New Mexico (28) rounding out the poll.
      

MSU's Bretson McNeal was tabbed Preseason Player of the Year.  McNeal was the top choice on 15 of the 22 ballots.  McNeal, a 6-2 senior guard from Minneapolis, Minn., dropped in 15.9 points per game to lead the Mustangs while shooting 42.3 percent from the arc.  He earned All-LSC first-team honors after making 28 starts.
      

The LSC has eight teams set for this season and the league race should be as competitive as ever.  The season begins November 13 with LSC teams playing a double round robin league schedule, in which each team plays a home and away contest against each of the other teams to determine the LSC champion.
      

The LSC champion will be the regular season winner determined by league games, while the postseason tournament winner is designated as LSC Tournament Champion and earns the conference's automatic qualification.  The top eight teams in the final conference standings qualify for the postseason tournament set for March 2-5 in Allen, Texas.
 
MEN'S BASKETBALL1stTOTAL
1 Tarleton State19173
2 Midwestern State3151
3 Angelo State 120
4 TAM-Commerce109
5 West Texas A&M84
6 Cameron72
7 TAM-Kingsville55
8 Eastern New Mexico 28






Women's Basketball preseason poll and awards announced
West Texas A&M is a nearly unanimous favorite to defend its Lone Star Conference title, according to the 2015-16 LSC preseason women's basketball poll announced Wednesday.  The league's preseason polls reflect the opinions of LSC head coaches and sports information directors, plus various media representatives from throughout the region.
        

Last season, WT claimed the LSC Championship and tournament titles along with the South Central Regional crown for the second consecutive year before falling in the first round of the Elite Eight.  The Lady Buffs received first-place votes on 23 of the 25 ballots for a total of 220 points.  Texas Woman's finished second with one first-place nod and 171 points, followed by Midwestern State in third with 157 points, and Cameron in fourth with 140 points and the remaining top vote.  Tarleton State was picked fifth (135 points), Texas A&M-Commerce sixth (128), Angelo State seventh (77), Eastern New Mexico (69) eighth and Texas A&M-Kingsville (28) ninth.
        

WT's Sasha Watson picked up Preseason Player of the Year acclaim.  Watson was the favorite on 19 of the 25 ballots cast.  Watson, a 5-7 junior guard from Amarillo, Texas, was second on last year's 30-3 team in scoring with 13 points per game.  She played in all 33 games with 29 starts and was named LSC Defensive Player of the Year, first team All-LSC and to the LSC All-Defensive Team.  She earned second team Daktronics All-South Central Region honors and was the South Central Region Tournament Most Outstanding Player.
        

The LSC has nine teams set for this season and the competition should be as tight as ever.  The season begins November 13 with LSC teams playing a double round robin league schedule, in which each team plays a home and away contest against each of the other teams to determine the LSC champion.
        

The LSC champion will be the regular season winner determined by league games, while the postseason tournament winner is designated as LSC Tournament Champion and earns the conference's automatic qualification.  The top eight teams in the final conference standings qualify for the postseason tournament set for March 2-5 in Allen, Texas.
 
WOMEN'S BASKETBALL1stTOTAL
1 West Texas A&M23220
2 Texas Woman's1171
3 Midwestern State157
Cameron1140
5Tarleton State 135
6TAM-Commerce128
7Angelo State 77
8Eastern New Mexico 69
9TAM-Kingsville28


Monday, October 26, 2015

LSC Scoop Power Poll and Rankings - Week 8

We apologize for not have game previews last week.  There was an unexpected disruption last week which did not allow for enough time to post.


LSC Scoop Power Poll

  1. Texas A&M-Commerce - Back-to-back LSC Regular Season Champions
  2. Midwestern State - lost the battle, but could still win the war
  3. Eastern New Mexico - could ENMU win out and sneak into the playoffs (NCAA playoffs)
  4. Angelo State - did the weak non-conference schedule hurt the Rams?
  5. West Texas A&M - an upset over ENMU and an ASU loss would put WT in top bracket
  6. Tarleton State - breaking the scoring record takes a little of the sting out of the season
  7. Texas A&M-Kingsville - has the W/L record taken some air out of rebuilding Javelinas?

AFCA Coaches Poll
1. West Georgia (first time for UWG in top spot)
2. Northwest Missouri
3. Ferris State
4. Colorado State-Pueblo
5. Ashland
8. Texas A&M-Commerce
9. Grand Valley State
12. Colorado Mines
14. Midwestern State
19. Colorado Mesa
20. Indianapolis
22. Michigan Tech
Receiving Votes - None



LSC Scoop Regional Ranking Outlook

  1. Ferris State (2 Last Week)
  2. Midwestern State (1)
  3. Ashland (5)
  4. Indianapolis (4)
  5. Texas A&M-Commerce (8)
  6. Grand Valley (7)
  7. Colorado State-Pueblo (9)
  8. Colorado Mines (3)
  9. Colorado Mesa (11)
  10. McKendree (6)
Ferris State has a great shot at the top seed.  Even with Lake Erie, Northern Michigan and Walsh remaining on their schedule, their season to date SOS is the second highest of SR playoff contenders.

Midwestern State is pretty solid at #2, due to the strongest SOS of the playoff contenders.   They have Texas A&M-Kingsville next week and will likely face Eastern New Mexico in the first round of the LSC playoff.  The following week would most likely be Texas A&M-Commerce if they win. 

Ashland, despite being undefeated, have the second worst SOS of the playoff contenders, and are closer to 7th place than 2nd in our calculations.  They face a huge challenge this week against Grand Valley and quality challenger the following week in Michigan Tech.

The team with the worst SOS is Indianapolis, which is why the undefeated (in D2 games) Greyhounds are #4.  Unlike Ashland, there are no serious challenges to Indy the rest of the way - William Jewell, Missouri S&T and St. Josephs are a combined 11-11.

Texas A&M-Commerce jumped three spots with the win over Midwestern State.  The Lions will have Angelo State (or West Texas A&M in a longshot) followed by Eastern New Mexico or Midwestern State.

Grand Valley beat a fading Findlay and moved up one spot.  They have a tough one against Ashland, then ease out with a middle of the road Tiffin, and a down Saginaw Valley.

Colorado State Pueblo moved up two with a win over previously unbeaten Colorado School of Mines.  Despite playing 7-1 Colorado Mesa next week, their SOS takes a hit with winless Black Hills and New Mexico Highlands sandwiching that one.

Colorado School of Mines fares a little bit better SOS-wise, with Colorado Mesa this week and mediocre Western State and Adams State following.

Colorado Mesa has the strongest closing schedule of the RMAC contenders, with Mines this week and Pueblo next week.  By the time they get to Western State in the season finale, their season will either be over, or they will be solidly in the top 7.

McKendree was probably going to drop out of the top 7 b/c of a 5-15 combined record of their closing three opponents, but losing to Missouri S&T assured they will not make the NCAA playoffs.

Monday, October 19, 2015

LSC Scoop Power Poll and Rankings - Week 7

LSC Scoop Power Poll

  1. Texas A&M-Commerce - Nice win over WT - LSC Game of Year up next.
  2. Midwestern State - playing best ball of year heading into TAMC battle.
  3. Eastern New Mexico - survive at Tarleton, battle for #3 seed against Angelo.
  4. Angelo State - Washington tops 8,000 yd passing plateau, should overtake Neiswander this week.
  5. West Texas A&M - a loss at Kingsville would create three way tie at bottom
  6. Tarleton State - another solid offensive game, another narrow loss
  7. Texas A&M-Kingsville - getting closer to breakout win
AFCA Coaches Poll
1. Minnesota State - Mankato
2. West Georgia
3. Northwest Missouri
4. Ferris State
5. Sioux Falls
6. Colorado State-Pueblo
7. Colorado Mines
8. Ashland

10. Midwestern State
11. Texas A&M-Commerce
12. Grand Valley State
17. Michigan Tech
23. Colorado Mesa
24. Angelo State
RV - Indianapolis

Seven of the top twelve (and ten of the top 25) are Super Region 4 teams.  Some great matchups this weekend.

LSC Scoop Regional Ranking Outlook

  1. Midwestern State (7-0) - Big win over strong SOS HSU helps solidify #1 spot.
  2. Ferris State (6-0) - Nice win over Ohio Dominican.  Sold in #2 spot.
  3. Colorado Mines (7-0) - Solid #3 spot to face big challenge the next two weeks.
  4. Indianapolis (6-0) - remaining schedule is a combined 9-14
  5. Ashland (7-0) - easiest game remaining is this week (4-3 Northern Michigan)
  6. McKendree (5-1) - remaining schedule is a combined 7-15.  Even if they win out, playoff hopes depend on what teams below them do the rest of the season. 
  7. Grand Valley (6-1) - win over undefeated MTU vaults GVSU into final playoff position.
  8. Texas A&M-Commerce (6-1) - Slight bump in Power Ranking, but GVSU jumped them with better SOS.
  9. Colorado State-Pueblo (6-1) - would a win over Colorado Mines put CSUP in top 7?
  10. Michigan Tech (5-1) - loss to Grand Valley knocks MTU out of playoff spot, cannot afford another loss.
Angelo State is #12
Eastern New Mexico is #13
West Texas A&M is #22
Tarleton State is #35
Texas A&M-Kingsville is #36

Future LSC football schools Western New Mexico is #29 and Panhandle State is #38.

The rankings are mathematical rankings based on W/L % and Opponents W/L records.

Big matchups this week
Midwestern State at Texas A&M-Commerce - Several reasons this a big one - #1 LSC Seed at stake, MSU win keeps them at top of SR4 rankings, TAMC win moves them into top 7 (probably).  MSU loss possibly drops them four spots, TAMC loss puts playoff hopes in serious jeopardy.
Michigan Tech at Ferris State - MTU on brink of playoff elimination after loss to GVSU.  Ferris State in contention for top SR4 seed.
Colorado Mines at Colorado State-Pueblo - Mines can solidify #3 spot with win, and depending on the two games above, could possibly assume the top seed.  A loss drops them possibly all the way down to #9 due to weak SOS.  A CSUP loss eliminates their playoff hopes, while a win might move them up into top 7 (if TAMC and Grand Valley lose) or simply keep them just on the outside looking in.

Others to watch
Findlay at Grand Valley State - both teams can score, but GVSU defense has been better.
Ashland at Northern Michigan - Ashland cannot afford a hiccup with Grand Valley and Michigan Tech the next two weeks.
Angelo State at Eastern New Mexico - #12 (ASU) at #13 (ENMU), winner needs to win out and get a lot of help above them to crack top 7.  Loser will play out the schedule for pride and try to ruin someone else's season.
Colorado Mesa at Fort Lewis - CMU is a solid #11, and with CSUP and Colorado Mines the next two weeks has a shot at moving up quickly, especially with the carnage from teams ahead of them this weekend.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Week Seven Game Previews


We will continue to update here as news stories become available and game notes get posted.  In the meantime...


Some computer rankings to ponder

Massey
Midwestern State moved up to #2, Texas A&M-Commere is #3, Angelo State dropped to #13, West Texas A&M is #20, ENMU is #21, Tarleton is #47, Texas A&M-Kingsville is #83

LSC opponents and Super Region 4 teams
Humboldt State is #9
CSU-Pueblo is #6
Ferris State is #8
Colorado Mines is #10
Ashland is #15
Mesa State is #18
Grand Valley is #24
Ohio Dominican is #29

Massey predictions for this week's games (last week they were 4-)
ASU wins 41-20 over TAMK
ENMU wins 44-38 over TSU
TAMC wins 38-3 over WTAM
MSU wins 34-31 over Humboldt State


Massey W/L for season - No changes from last week
TAMC 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (6-0 in LSC) top seed
MSU 8-1 heading into LSC playoffs (5-1 in LSC) 2nd seed
ASU 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (4-2 in LSC) 3rd seed 
ENMU 6-3 heading into LSC playoffs (3-3 in LSC) 4th seed
WTAM 3-5 heading into LSC playoffs (2-4 in LSC) top seed
TSU 2-6 heading into LSC playoffs (1-5 in LSC) 2nd seed
TAMK 1-8 heading into LSC playoffs (0-6 in LSC) 3rd seed

Compughterratings.com
LSC - #5 Midwestern State, #16 Texas A&M-Commerce, #36 Angelo State, #52 West Texas A&M, #53 ENMU, #108 Tarleton State, #136 Texas A&M-Kingsville

Humboldt State jumped from #9 to #3.


This Week's game predictions 
ENMU 48-37 over TSU
ASU 41-17 over TAMK
TAMC 38-26 over WTAM
HSU 34-31 over MSU


Atomic Football Rankings
No rankings to date

This Week's game predictions (changes in prediction from last week)
ASU 43-18 over TAMK (slight change from 42-19 LW)
ENMU 44-36 over TSU (42-34 LW)
TAMC 42-29 over WTAM (42-30 LW)
MSU 32-27 over Humboldt (34-28 LW)

They also have next week's games.  We'll compare next week to see if they change b/c of this week's results.
TSU 51-33 over Opie State
ASU 36-33 over ENMU 
WTAM 38-23 over TAMK
TAMC 35-27 in the LSC  Game of the Year


This week's games
Eastern New Mexico at Tarleton State
TSU Game Notes
ENMU Audio

The good news for Tarleton - the Texans gutted out their first 2015 win last week in Kingsville.  The bad news - the Javelinas had 10+ points and 70+ yards above their season average and were a fumbled snap at the one yard line from losing the ball game.  ENMU is quietly putting together a good season and has a shot at cracking the top 3 heading into the LSC tournament.  ENMU rolls, 52-24.


Texas A&M Kingsville at #25 Angelo State
TAMK Game Notes

Angelo State is desperate for a win.  After riding a soft early schedule to a top 10 ranking, the Rams have dropped two straight and are on the verge of NCAA playoff elimination.  Kyle Washington is having a very good senior season, but he's thrown 4 INT's the last two weeks.  The Javelinas lost another winnable game last week, fumbling the snap on the one yard line as time expired.  Their 1-5 record could easily be 4-2 (also losing games on a blocked PAT resulting in a 2 pt conversion in week 1, 2 kickoff returns for TD in week 4), but they aren't.  Much like their games against TAMC and ENMU, the Javelinas could stick around for a while, but ASU pulls away.  Angelo 45-24.


#14 Texas A&M Commerce at West Texas A&M
TAMC Game Notes
WTAM Game Notes

If you take a quick look at LSC stats, you might think that the LSC office has it all wrong.  Not so much on the defensive side, where TAMC and WT are #5 & #6 in yards allowed and #3 and #5 in points allowed.  The offense?  Commerce tied at #1 in scoring and #3 in yardage is about right, but WT at #6 in scoring and last in yards gained? Or Commerce #2 in rushing and WT #6 in passing (203 yards per game!!!) and last in pass efficiency?  WT has a running back leading LSC in rushing and Commerce with the #2 and #3?  But that is the LSC of 2015 - more balanced offensively, but just as entertaining.

This is an interesting matchup for reasons other the numbers as well.  Since Coach Carthel leaft WT and took the reins at TAMC, the Lions have been a team on the rise, while WT seems to be slipping.  Throw in a few puzzling questions in the Spanish-gate fiasco and this has the makings of a nice little feud.  Of course we could be reading way too much into the backstory, but it sure makes it more interesting.  TAMC 49-24.


#10 Humboldt State at #11 Midwestern State

The surprise marquee matchup of the week.  Neither team was ranked in the preseason, but both are undefeated and ranked by the AFCA at #10 and #11.  The Jacks come into Wichita Falls with a 5-0 record having defeated Western Oregon (which just defeated North Alabama), Dixie State, South Dakota Mines and Azusa Pacific (twice) - combined record of  12-7 in non-HSU games.  They are scoring 50 points a game and giving up 19.  They are rushing for 305 yards (5th in the nation), while allowing 118.  They throw for 197 and allow 110.  Total offense 502 (10th nationally) vs. 347 given up by the defense.  Individually, Ja'Quan Garnder leads the nation with 210 yards per game and 15 TDs rushing.  QB Robert Webber doesn't throw the ball much, but is efficient when he does.  He is completing 61% of his passes, has a 10-1 TD to INT ratio and a QB rating of 161.5.  His favorite target is Chase Krivashei, with 27 receptions for 379 yards and 8 TDs.  LB Drew Dubois is the defensive leader with 7 sacks and 27 total tackles.

Midwestern State has a defense playing very well and an offense that is doing just enough to win.  So far in 2015, they are 4th in the LSC in scoring (31.8) and total offense (425.3).  The run game is producing 214.5 yards per game, and they are passing for another 210.8.  The defense has been stellar, giving up an LSC best 20.5 points per game, (holding Angelo State to just 20 and ENMU to 24), and is third in yards allowed (378.7).  Also working in their favor is a +7 turnover margin.

Playoff implications
For HSU - in recent years, the GNAC has had teams miss the playoffs with just one loss, so the Jacks have to see the urgency in winning this one and run the table on the remainder of the regular season.  They still have road games at Central Washington and the regular season finale at Western Oregon though.
For MSU - with a surprising tough non-conference schedule (Colorado Mesa has just one loss (to MSU) to date and this game), MSU could be the top seed in SR4 if they win out.  One loss and they should be a #3 or #4 seed.  Two losses and they could still make the playoffs.  With games against Commerce and likely two of ENMU/ASU/Commerce, nothing is guaranteed.


This looks like a good matchup on both sides of the ball.  Look for MSU to hit their offensive averages or slightly exceed them.  The key to the game is how well MSU defends the HSU run game.  Webber has been efficient, but the run game has opened up the passing game this season.  If the Jacks are forced to pass, there might be some drop-off there.  Weather could come into play as well - predicted highs in Arcata this week are in the 60's, while in Wichita Falls it is expected to be in the mid 80's.  We'll take the Mustangs to continue to surprise in 2015.  MSU 35-31

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

LSC Scoop Power Poll - Week 6

LSC Scoop Power Poll

  1. Texas A&M-Commerce - kept playoff hopes alive with big win over Angelo.
  2. Midwestern State - #11 Mustangs face #10 Humboldt State in surprise marquee game.
  3. Eastern New Mexico - could Greyhounds be late season Cinderella?
  4. Angelo State - dream season on verge of becoming huge disappointment.
  5. West Texas A&M - hoping to avoid a losing season
  6. Tarleton State - escape Kingsville with a win, likely to host Hogs in LSC playoffs
  7. Texas A&M-Kingsville - Javelinas ready to see improvement translate into wins


AFCA Coachs Poll
1. Minnesota State - Mankato
2. West Georgia
3. Northwest Missouri
4. Ferris State
5. Sioux Falls
6. Colorado State Pueblo
7. Colorado School of Mines
8. Ashland
11. Midwestern State
12. Michigan Tech
14. Texas A&M Commerce
18. Grand Valley State
25. Angelo State
Receiving Votes - Colorado Mesa, Indianapolis


Super Region Four Rankings (LSC Scoop esitmate)

  1. Midwestern State
  2. Ferris State
  3. Colorado School of Mines
  4. Michigan Tech
  5. Indianapolis
  6. Ashland
  7. McKendree
  8. Texas A&M-Commerce
  9. Grand Valley State
  10. Colorado State-Pueblo
Other LSC teams
13. Angelo State
16. Eastern New Mexico
21. West Texas A&M
31. Tarleton State
33. Texas A&M-Kingsville

Big games upcoming:
Midwestern State - Humboldt State, Texas A&M Commerce, LSC Playoff
Ferris State - Ohio Dominican, Michigan Tech, Northern Michigan
Colorado Mines - CSUP, Colorado Mesa
Michigan Tech - Grand Valley, Ferris State, Tiffin, Ashland
Indianapolis - none (St. Josephs is closest thing)
Ashland - Northern Michigan, Grand Valley, Michigan Tech
McKendree - none (St. Josephs is closest thing)
Texas A&M-Commerce - Midwestern State, LSC Playoff
Grand Valley State - Michigan Tech, Ashland, Tiffin
Colorado State-Pueblo - Chadron, Colorado Mines, Colorado Mesa


Odds and ends on SR 4 Rankings
  • Midwestern State has played the toughest schedule to date of the top 10 regional teams, while Ashland has played the easiest.
  • There are currently 6 teams without a D2 loss.  There is a possibility of 5 at the end of the regular season.
  • Michigan Tech has two unbeaten teams remaining on its schedule, plus a 5-1 team and a 4-2 squad.
  • Even if they win out, don't be surprised if McKendree falls out of the rankings with just one loss.
  • Even if undefeated, Indianapolis could be a 6 seed.

Friday, October 9, 2015

Week Six Game Previews


We will continue to update here as news stories become available and game notes get posted.  In the meantime...


Some computer rankings to ponder

Massey
Midwestern State moved up to #3, Texas A&M-Commere is #4, Angelo State dropped to #10, West Texas A&M is #17, ENMU is #20, Tarleton is #42, Texas A&M-Kingsville is #73

LSC opponents and/or Super Region 4 teams
Will update later in season as playoff picture start to clear up

Massey predictions for this week's games (last week they were 2-1)
TSU wins 41-34 over TAMK
TAMC wins 37-33 over ASU
MSU wins 36-30 over WTAM
ENMU wins 54-3 over Bacone


Massey W/L for season
TAMC 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (6-0 in LSC) top seed
MSU 8-1 heading into LSC playoffs (5-1 in LSC) 2nd seed
ASU 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (4-2 in LSC) 3rd seed 
ENMU 6-3 heading into LSC playoffs (3-3 in LSC) 4th seed (switched WTAM pick)
WTAM 4-4 heading into LSC playoffs (2-4 in LSC) top seed (switched ENMU pick)
TSU 2-6 heading into LSC playoffs (1-5 in LSC) 2nd seed
TAMK 1-8 heading into LSC playoffs (0-6 in LSC) 3rd seed

Compughterratings.com
LSC - #4 Midwestern State, #23 Angelo State, #25 Texas A&M-Commerce, #56 ENMU, #57 West Texas A&M, #112 Tarleton State, #115 Texas A&M-Kingsville


This Week's game predictions (Also 2-1 last week)
MSU 39-26 over WTAM
TAMC 35-22 over ASU
TAMK 39-36 over TSU
ENMU 63-6 over Bacone

Atomic Football Rankings
No rankings to date

This Week's game predictions (changes in prediction from last week)
TSU 38-32 over TAMK (TSU picked 43-28 last week)
TAMC 40-27 over ASU (ASU 7 fewer points from last week's pick)
MSU 37-27 over WTAM (No change)
ENMU 62-7 over Bacone (58-6 LW)


They also have next week's games.  We'll compare next week to see if they change b/c of this week's results.
ASU 42-19 over TAMK
ENMU 42-34 over TSU
TAMC 42-30 over WTAM
MSU 34-28 over Humboldt (would one loss keep the top GNAC team out of the playoffs again?)


ENMU at Bacone
Let's not waste much time here.  ENMU will run the ball at will and throttle the Warriors offense.  Stat padding game and everyone that travels gets to play.  ENMU 63-10


Tarleton State at Texas A&M Kingsville
Game Notes
Game Notes
Audio

While both teams are winless in the LSC and will be underdogs the rest of the way, this game does have some importance to it.  First of all, the teams will be playing for pride - Tarleton desperately wants to put last week's 63-0 blowout behind them, Texas A&M-Kingsville wants something to show for the improvements they have shown during the season, and no one wants to finish last in the conference.  Second, the winner will likely be the #6 seed in the LSC Conference Playoffs and host the #7 team.

The Texans offense really struggled when Zed Woerner went down last week.  If he is healthy, this game is a toss-up, if not the Javelinas should win fairly comfortably.  TAMK gets the W, 35-28.



West Texas A&M at #12 Midwestern State
Game Notes
Game Notes

It's not always accurate to compare team performances against a common opponent, but we'll look at the Angelo State games anyway.  The Buffaloes used big plays (punt return TD, 73 yard pass) to keep pace with ASU early on, but eventually faded, getting out gained 607-302.  The Mustangs also used big plays (fumbler recovery in end zone, blocked punt for TD), but did not fade, holding the #1 offense in the nation to 482 yards.

Both teams have played a quality schedule this year - both have wins over top 10 teams and MSU's win over Colorado Mesa looks much better in hindsight (CMU's only loss on the season).  MSU has been more consistent this year, but may have a bit of a big win hangover.  WTAM has shown the ability to be competitive with everyone they have played.  Close game, but the Mustangs pull it out, MSU 28-21.



#16 Angelo State at #15 Texas A&M-Commerce
Game Notes
Game Notes

Round One of the playoffs is unofficially here.  Two top 20 teams, each with a loss, and tough games still ahead - Commerce still has MSU, and the LSC playoffs guarantees a rematch of this game, another matchup with MSU, or both.  With Super Region 4 set up the way it is (GLIAC pretty much plays only conference games and Ferris State and Ashland don't face each other, GLVC will likely get a team through with no D2 losses, and the RMAC might have a couple of teams with just one loss), it will be almost impossible for a 2 loss team to make the playoffs.  Not quite impossible, but not likely.

A look at the numbers - as expected, these two are tops in the LSC offensively.  Commerce holds the edge in scoring, 46.8 to 42.2, while ASU leads in yardage, 565.8 to 529.6.  The Lions are 2nd rushing, 268 while ASU is 3rd at 222.2.  The Rams are the only LSC team passing for more than 300 yards per game (343.6), Commerce is 3rd at 261.6, but have a passing efficiency rating of 164.7 to ASU's 136.3.  On the other side of the ball, ASU leads in scoring defense, 19.4 while Commerce is third at 23.2.  Angelo also leads in yards allowed (336.4), TAMC is 4th (388.4).  The Lions have the top run defense (123.6), but ASU is right behind at 128.  Angelo has the 2nd best pass defense (208.4) while TAMC is 4th (264.8).  Pass efficiency defensive edge goes to ASU (96.7), while TAMC is 6th at 131.8.

A look at the schedules - ASU has played one team with a winning record and lost (29-20 to MSU), Commerce lost to Delta State (#10 at the time) and beat a pretty good Eastern New Mexico squad.

Recent history - The teams split last year's games, Commerce winning in the regular season 41-40 in San Angelo, the Rams 35-33 in the LSC playoff championship game at Commerce and the Rams won 25-20 in 2013.

This week - expect the offenses to dominate most of this game, but it the game will likely be decided by a big defensive or special teams play.  The Lions are likely extra motivated by the LSC playoff loss last year, because it kept them out of the playoffs, and they would love to replay the favor Saturday.  TAMC 45-42

Monday, October 5, 2015

LSC Scoop Power Poll - Week 5

LSC Scoop Football Power Poll

  1. Texas A&M-Commerce - Hand Texans worst loss in history, next up possible playoff elimination game vs. Angelo State.
  2. Midwestern State - Didn't dominate, but did enough to knock off Angelo State.
  3. Angelo State - In the blink of an eye, the Rams go from #6 in the nation, to brink of playoff elimination
  4. Eastern New Mexico - Impressive performance in weather delayed homecoming
  5. West Texas A&M - off-week to prepare for giant-killer Mustangs
  6. Texas A&M-Kingsville - Not quite ready for primetime
  7. Tarleton State - injuries on offense make a bad situation worse.


AFCA Coaches Poll
Angelo State drops 10 spots, Midwestern State jumps 8, Texas A&M-Commerce moves up 3.
Top four stay the same.
Teams dropping - Delta State drops 12 after losing to Florida Tech, ditto Valdosta after UNA loss, Harding falls 10 after close loss to Ouachita Baptist.  Tuskegee and Concord fall out of the rankings


1. Minnesota-State
2. West Georgia
3. Northwest Missouri
4. Ferris State
5. Sioux Falls
7. Colorado State Pueblo
8. Colorado School of Mines
9. Ashland
12. Midwestern State
15. Texas A&M-Commerce
16. Angelo State
24. Grand Valley State
RV - Colorado Mesa, Indianapolis, West Texas A&M, Findlay


LSC Football Recap - Week 5
From the LSC Office

Mustangs stay unbeaten, take down No. 6 Angelo State, 29-20
 No. 20-ranked Midwestern State displayed more of its mettle Saturday night taking down No. 6 Angelo State 29-20 at LeGrand Stadium at First Community Credit Union Field.

The Mustangs improved to 5-0 for the sixth time in program history and first since 2011, while taking a leg up in the race for the Lone Star Conference championship moving to 3-0.

MSU was already without injured senior linebacker Daniel Laudermilk, then lost reigning LSC Offensive Player of the Week Hagen Hutchinson with an apparent leg injury in the first quarter.

But junior Adam Hill moved over to the mike linebacker position and produced an interception which he returned 77 yards to thwart Angelo State's opening possession...Complete Release



No. 18 Lions Record First Shutout Since 2004 with 63-0 Rout of Tarleton State
 Led by a pair of 100-yard rushers for the third consecutive game and 368 rushing yards, No. 18 A&M-Commerce cruised to a 63-0 win over Tarleton State Saturday at Memorial Stadium.

Richard Cooper reeled off a 72-yard run on the first play from scrimmage from the Lions to set the tone in the game.  A&M-Commerce scored on their fourth play from scrimmage, a 7-yard pass from Harrison Stewart to Justice Luce.

The Lions had 605 yards of total offense after tacking on 237 passing yards to go along with the 368 rushing yards.  The Texans managed just 216 total yards of offense including 86 yards through the air and 130 yards on the ground.  A&M-Commerce averaged 8.9 yards per play, 10.8 yards per rush and 14.8 yards per completion, while Tarleton State averaged only 3.7 yards per play, 3.9 yards per rush and 7.8 yards per completion...Complete Release



Cass and ENMU Backfield Run Rampant Over Javelinas in 56-31 Homecoming Win
 Despite numerous weather delays and lightning warnings, the last homecoming game at Blackwater Draw was a memorable one as the Gridiron Greyhounds ran all over Texas A&M University-Kingsville Saturday for a 56-31 win.

The Eastern New Mexico University football team (3-2, 1-2 Lone Star Conference) took an early 14 point lead only five minutes into the game. Capitalizing off a six play, 53-yard, one minute and thirty second opening drive, the Greyhounds followed up with an Elliot Peters 74-yard interception return for a touchdown.

ENMU had its best night running the ball, recording a season high 396-yards on the ground.  Led by Kamal Cass with 164 yards and four touchdowns, the Greyhounds had four other rushers with 40 plus yards, including D'Maujeric Tucker with 86.

The performance was Cass' first 100-yard game of his career.  Going into the game the standout back had four touchdowns total, doubling his season total too eight on the year with his performance.

Quarterback Jeremy Buurma went 8-for-10 on the night with 162 yards in the air and one touchdown pass to Adrian Horton.  Horton finished with four receptions for 84 yards in the game...Complete Release

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Game Previews - Week Five

We will continue to update here as news stories become available and game notes get posted.  In the meantime...


Some computer rankings to ponder

Massey
Midwestern State moved up to #5, Angelo State is now #6, Texas A&M-Commere is #9, West Texas A&M is #18, ENMU is #25, Tarleton is #40, Texas A&M-Kingsville is #79

LSC opponents and/or Super Region 4 teams
Will update later in season as playoff picture start to clear up

Massey predictions for this week's games (last week they were 3-1)
ENMU wins 35-20 over TAMK
TAMC wins 48-41 over TSU
ASU wins 34-31 over MSU


Massey W/L for season
TAMC 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (6-0 in LSC) top seed
ASU 8-1 heading into LSC playoffs (5-1 in LSC) 2nd seed (predicted to lose to WT last week)
MSU 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (4-2 in LSC) 3rd seed
WTAM 4-4 heading into LSC playoffs (3-3 in LSC) 4th seed
ENMU 5-4 heading into LSC playoffs (2-4 in LSC) top seed (switched TSU pick)
TSU 2-6 heading into LSC playoffs (1-5 in LSC) 2nd seed (switched ENMU pick)
TAMK 1-8 heading into LSC playoffs (0-6 in LSC) 3rd seed

Compughterratings.com
LSC - #5 Midwestern State, #14 Angelo State, #19 Texas A&M-Commerce, #34 West Texas A&M, #56 ENMU, #80 Tarleton State, #99 Texas A&M-Kingsville


This Week's game predictions (Also 3-1 last week)
ASU 32-31 over MSU
TAMC 48-39 over TSU
ENMU 34-19 over TAMK

Atomic Football Rankings
No rankings to date

This Week's game predictions (Also 3-1)
ASU 32-31 over MSU
TAMC 48-40 over TSU
ENMU 39-17 over TAMK

They also have next week's games.  We'll compare next week to see if they change b/c of this week's results.
TSU 43-28 over TAMK
TAMC 40-34 over ASU
MSU 37-27 over WTAM
ENMU 58-6 over Bacone (why is ENMU traveling to Bacone?  Why are they even playing Bacone?)


Texas A&M Kingsville at Eastern New Mexico

TAMK Game Notes


The Javelinas make their final conference trip to Blackwater Draw.  The offense comes in last in the LSC to yards and points scored, but the passing game has shown promise.  The defense leads the LSC in yards allowed, but due to poor special teams play, is 3rd in points allowed.  Despite a 1-3 record, the Javelinas are improved over the last two seasons.

The Greyhounds look just about how we expected, running the ball very well and not passing much, but getting yards in big chunks when they do.  The defense is giving up yards, but  playing well enough to keep the team in ball games.

Stat of the Game - ENMU defense is third in LSC in points per yard allowed average, while TAMK is last, primarily due to teams having superior field advantage, magnified greatly the last two weeks.  For the Javelinas to win, they cannot give away field position, and have to become more consistent on offense.  For ENMU to win, they just need to stick to the game plan, run the ball well, pass effectively and limit mistakes.  ENMU 28-20.


#18 Texas A&M-Commerce at Tarleton State

TAMC Game Notes
TSU Game Notes


Coach Carthel probably doesn't want his Lions to look at Tarleton's defensive stats.  Better to keep them focused on execution and not trying to daydream about how many yards and points they can pile up this weekend.  The Lions run game (273 yds, 6.2 per carry) and pass game (268 yds) should be in for a big, huge game against a defense that is on pace for one of the worst years (50 points, 592 yards per game, last in the LSC in every category) in recent memory.

A better matchup looks to be the Tarleton offense against TAMC's defense.  The Texans are 3rd in scoring and yards gained while Commerce in 5th in scoring defense and 4th in yards given up.  TSU has scored at least 35 points and gained at least 480 yards in each of their three games, keeping them close despite the lack of defense.

This game probably won't reach the offensive stratosphere of the WT-ACU playoff game from a few years back, but it should provide plenty of fireworks.  TAMC wins 56-35.


Game of the Week
#20 Midwestern State at #6 Angelo State




The Mustangs offense is rounding into form, improving each week.  Last week against Tarleton, MSU piled up 676 yards (319 rushing, 357 passing) topping Tarleton State 63-46.  They spread the ball around effectively, with five different Mustangs rushing for 49 or more yards and four with more than 40 receiving yards.  Hagen Hutchinson led the way completing 19-30 passes for 251 yards and 3 TDs and adding 69 yards and 3 TDs rushing.  The defense did give up 46 points and 503 yards to TSU, but 14 points and 164 yards came in the final 6 minutes with the game completely out of reach.

Despite a top 10 ranking, there were still questions about Angelo State heading into last week's matchup against West Texas A&M.  They answered most of them, besting the Buffaloes 35-17 for their first win over WT since 2005.  This looked to be a shootout early on, with the teams tied at 14 after one quarter, and ASU holding a slim 21-17 lead with 11:39 to play in the first half.  At that point, roughly 1/3 of the way into the game, the teams had combined for 358 yards and 38 points.  From then on it was all ASU, with the Rams continuing the pace yardage-wise (415 more yards) but getting bogged down somewhat in WT territory (two 2nd quarter drives ended on downs inside the WT 25 yard-line).  WT on the other hand, gained just 136 yards over the final 40 minutes of the game, never getting inside the ASU 30 yard line.

The matchups:
ASU Offense vs. MSU Defense
Scoring   47.8 (1st) - 21.5 (2nd)
Rushing   245 (2nd) - 165.8 (3rd)
Passing   342 (1st) - 187 (2nd)
Pass Eff   138.0 (4th) - 125.0 (5th)
Total Off   587 (1st) - 353 (3rd)


MSU Offense vs. ASU Defense
Scoring   34.5 (5th) - 17.0 (1st)
Rushing   204 (4th) - 110 (1st)
Passing   228 (5th) - 218 (3rd)
Pass Eff   127.0 (6th) - 97.8 (2nd)
Total Off   431 (5th) - 327 (2nd)

The numbers tell us that Angelo probably won't put up quite the same guady offensive numbers, but will keep the Mustangs offense in check.  #7 tells us the Rams will still win this ball game - Angelo State 38 - 24.

Lone Star Conference

Angelo State News

Cameron University

Eastern New Mexico University

MSUMustangs.com

Oklahoma Panhandle State University

Texas A&M-Commerce

Tarleton State University

Texas A&M-Kingsville

Texas Woman's College

University of Texas of the Permian Basin

West Texas A&M University

Western New Mexico

Amarillo Globe News - WT Sports