Thursday, October 1, 2015

Game Previews - Week Five

We will continue to update here as news stories become available and game notes get posted.  In the meantime...

Some computer rankings to ponder

Midwestern State moved up to #5, Angelo State is now #6, Texas A&M-Commere is #9, West Texas A&M is #18, ENMU is #25, Tarleton is #40, Texas A&M-Kingsville is #79

LSC opponents and/or Super Region 4 teams
Will update later in season as playoff picture start to clear up

Massey predictions for this week's games (last week they were 3-1)
ENMU wins 35-20 over TAMK
TAMC wins 48-41 over TSU
ASU wins 34-31 over MSU

Massey W/L for season
TAMC 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (6-0 in LSC) top seed
ASU 8-1 heading into LSC playoffs (5-1 in LSC) 2nd seed (predicted to lose to WT last week)
MSU 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (4-2 in LSC) 3rd seed
WTAM 4-4 heading into LSC playoffs (3-3 in LSC) 4th seed
ENMU 5-4 heading into LSC playoffs (2-4 in LSC) top seed (switched TSU pick)
TSU 2-6 heading into LSC playoffs (1-5 in LSC) 2nd seed (switched ENMU pick)
TAMK 1-8 heading into LSC playoffs (0-6 in LSC) 3rd seed
LSC - #5 Midwestern State, #14 Angelo State, #19 Texas A&M-Commerce, #34 West Texas A&M, #56 ENMU, #80 Tarleton State, #99 Texas A&M-Kingsville

This Week's game predictions (Also 3-1 last week)
ASU 32-31 over MSU
TAMC 48-39 over TSU
ENMU 34-19 over TAMK

Atomic Football Rankings
No rankings to date

This Week's game predictions (Also 3-1)
ASU 32-31 over MSU
TAMC 48-40 over TSU
ENMU 39-17 over TAMK

They also have next week's games.  We'll compare next week to see if they change b/c of this week's results.
TSU 43-28 over TAMK
TAMC 40-34 over ASU
MSU 37-27 over WTAM
ENMU 58-6 over Bacone (why is ENMU traveling to Bacone?  Why are they even playing Bacone?)

Texas A&M Kingsville at Eastern New Mexico

TAMK Game Notes

The Javelinas make their final conference trip to Blackwater Draw.  The offense comes in last in the LSC to yards and points scored, but the passing game has shown promise.  The defense leads the LSC in yards allowed, but due to poor special teams play, is 3rd in points allowed.  Despite a 1-3 record, the Javelinas are improved over the last two seasons.

The Greyhounds look just about how we expected, running the ball very well and not passing much, but getting yards in big chunks when they do.  The defense is giving up yards, but  playing well enough to keep the team in ball games.

Stat of the Game - ENMU defense is third in LSC in points per yard allowed average, while TAMK is last, primarily due to teams having superior field advantage, magnified greatly the last two weeks.  For the Javelinas to win, they cannot give away field position, and have to become more consistent on offense.  For ENMU to win, they just need to stick to the game plan, run the ball well, pass effectively and limit mistakes.  ENMU 28-20.

#18 Texas A&M-Commerce at Tarleton State

TAMC Game Notes
TSU Game Notes

Coach Carthel probably doesn't want his Lions to look at Tarleton's defensive stats.  Better to keep them focused on execution and not trying to daydream about how many yards and points they can pile up this weekend.  The Lions run game (273 yds, 6.2 per carry) and pass game (268 yds) should be in for a big, huge game against a defense that is on pace for one of the worst years (50 points, 592 yards per game, last in the LSC in every category) in recent memory.

A better matchup looks to be the Tarleton offense against TAMC's defense.  The Texans are 3rd in scoring and yards gained while Commerce in 5th in scoring defense and 4th in yards given up.  TSU has scored at least 35 points and gained at least 480 yards in each of their three games, keeping them close despite the lack of defense.

This game probably won't reach the offensive stratosphere of the WT-ACU playoff game from a few years back, but it should provide plenty of fireworks.  TAMC wins 56-35.

Game of the Week
#20 Midwestern State at #6 Angelo State

The Mustangs offense is rounding into form, improving each week.  Last week against Tarleton, MSU piled up 676 yards (319 rushing, 357 passing) topping Tarleton State 63-46.  They spread the ball around effectively, with five different Mustangs rushing for 49 or more yards and four with more than 40 receiving yards.  Hagen Hutchinson led the way completing 19-30 passes for 251 yards and 3 TDs and adding 69 yards and 3 TDs rushing.  The defense did give up 46 points and 503 yards to TSU, but 14 points and 164 yards came in the final 6 minutes with the game completely out of reach.

Despite a top 10 ranking, there were still questions about Angelo State heading into last week's matchup against West Texas A&M.  They answered most of them, besting the Buffaloes 35-17 for their first win over WT since 2005.  This looked to be a shootout early on, with the teams tied at 14 after one quarter, and ASU holding a slim 21-17 lead with 11:39 to play in the first half.  At that point, roughly 1/3 of the way into the game, the teams had combined for 358 yards and 38 points.  From then on it was all ASU, with the Rams continuing the pace yardage-wise (415 more yards) but getting bogged down somewhat in WT territory (two 2nd quarter drives ended on downs inside the WT 25 yard-line).  WT on the other hand, gained just 136 yards over the final 40 minutes of the game, never getting inside the ASU 30 yard line.

The matchups:
ASU Offense vs. MSU Defense
Scoring   47.8 (1st) - 21.5 (2nd)
Rushing   245 (2nd) - 165.8 (3rd)
Passing   342 (1st) - 187 (2nd)
Pass Eff   138.0 (4th) - 125.0 (5th)
Total Off   587 (1st) - 353 (3rd)

MSU Offense vs. ASU Defense
Scoring   34.5 (5th) - 17.0 (1st)
Rushing   204 (4th) - 110 (1st)
Passing   228 (5th) - 218 (3rd)
Pass Eff   127.0 (6th) - 97.8 (2nd)
Total Off   431 (5th) - 327 (2nd)

The numbers tell us that Angelo probably won't put up quite the same guady offensive numbers, but will keep the Mustangs offense in check.  #7 tells us the Rams will still win this ball game - Angelo State 38 - 24.

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Lone Star Conference

Angelo State University

Cameron University

Eastern New Mexico University

Texas A&M-Commerce

Tarleton State University

Texas A&M-Kingsville

Texas Woman's College

University of Texas of the Permian Basin

West Texas A&M University

Western New Mexico