Friday, October 9, 2015

Week Six Game Previews

We will continue to update here as news stories become available and game notes get posted.  In the meantime...

Some computer rankings to ponder

Midwestern State moved up to #3, Texas A&M-Commere is #4, Angelo State dropped to #10, West Texas A&M is #17, ENMU is #20, Tarleton is #42, Texas A&M-Kingsville is #73

LSC opponents and/or Super Region 4 teams
Will update later in season as playoff picture start to clear up

Massey predictions for this week's games (last week they were 2-1)
TSU wins 41-34 over TAMK
TAMC wins 37-33 over ASU
MSU wins 36-30 over WTAM
ENMU wins 54-3 over Bacone

Massey W/L for season
TAMC 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (6-0 in LSC) top seed
MSU 8-1 heading into LSC playoffs (5-1 in LSC) 2nd seed
ASU 7-2 heading into LSC playoffs (4-2 in LSC) 3rd seed 
ENMU 6-3 heading into LSC playoffs (3-3 in LSC) 4th seed (switched WTAM pick)
WTAM 4-4 heading into LSC playoffs (2-4 in LSC) top seed (switched ENMU pick)
TSU 2-6 heading into LSC playoffs (1-5 in LSC) 2nd seed
TAMK 1-8 heading into LSC playoffs (0-6 in LSC) 3rd seed
LSC - #4 Midwestern State, #23 Angelo State, #25 Texas A&M-Commerce, #56 ENMU, #57 West Texas A&M, #112 Tarleton State, #115 Texas A&M-Kingsville

This Week's game predictions (Also 2-1 last week)
MSU 39-26 over WTAM
TAMC 35-22 over ASU
TAMK 39-36 over TSU
ENMU 63-6 over Bacone

Atomic Football Rankings
No rankings to date

This Week's game predictions (changes in prediction from last week)
TSU 38-32 over TAMK (TSU picked 43-28 last week)
TAMC 40-27 over ASU (ASU 7 fewer points from last week's pick)
MSU 37-27 over WTAM (No change)
ENMU 62-7 over Bacone (58-6 LW)

They also have next week's games.  We'll compare next week to see if they change b/c of this week's results.
ASU 42-19 over TAMK
ENMU 42-34 over TSU
TAMC 42-30 over WTAM
MSU 34-28 over Humboldt (would one loss keep the top GNAC team out of the playoffs again?)

ENMU at Bacone
Let's not waste much time here.  ENMU will run the ball at will and throttle the Warriors offense.  Stat padding game and everyone that travels gets to play.  ENMU 63-10

Tarleton State at Texas A&M Kingsville
Game Notes
Game Notes

While both teams are winless in the LSC and will be underdogs the rest of the way, this game does have some importance to it.  First of all, the teams will be playing for pride - Tarleton desperately wants to put last week's 63-0 blowout behind them, Texas A&M-Kingsville wants something to show for the improvements they have shown during the season, and no one wants to finish last in the conference.  Second, the winner will likely be the #6 seed in the LSC Conference Playoffs and host the #7 team.

The Texans offense really struggled when Zed Woerner went down last week.  If he is healthy, this game is a toss-up, if not the Javelinas should win fairly comfortably.  TAMK gets the W, 35-28.

West Texas A&M at #12 Midwestern State
Game Notes
Game Notes

It's not always accurate to compare team performances against a common opponent, but we'll look at the Angelo State games anyway.  The Buffaloes used big plays (punt return TD, 73 yard pass) to keep pace with ASU early on, but eventually faded, getting out gained 607-302.  The Mustangs also used big plays (fumbler recovery in end zone, blocked punt for TD), but did not fade, holding the #1 offense in the nation to 482 yards.

Both teams have played a quality schedule this year - both have wins over top 10 teams and MSU's win over Colorado Mesa looks much better in hindsight (CMU's only loss on the season).  MSU has been more consistent this year, but may have a bit of a big win hangover.  WTAM has shown the ability to be competitive with everyone they have played.  Close game, but the Mustangs pull it out, MSU 28-21.

#16 Angelo State at #15 Texas A&M-Commerce
Game Notes
Game Notes

Round One of the playoffs is unofficially here.  Two top 20 teams, each with a loss, and tough games still ahead - Commerce still has MSU, and the LSC playoffs guarantees a rematch of this game, another matchup with MSU, or both.  With Super Region 4 set up the way it is (GLIAC pretty much plays only conference games and Ferris State and Ashland don't face each other, GLVC will likely get a team through with no D2 losses, and the RMAC might have a couple of teams with just one loss), it will be almost impossible for a 2 loss team to make the playoffs.  Not quite impossible, but not likely.

A look at the numbers - as expected, these two are tops in the LSC offensively.  Commerce holds the edge in scoring, 46.8 to 42.2, while ASU leads in yardage, 565.8 to 529.6.  The Lions are 2nd rushing, 268 while ASU is 3rd at 222.2.  The Rams are the only LSC team passing for more than 300 yards per game (343.6), Commerce is 3rd at 261.6, but have a passing efficiency rating of 164.7 to ASU's 136.3.  On the other side of the ball, ASU leads in scoring defense, 19.4 while Commerce is third at 23.2.  Angelo also leads in yards allowed (336.4), TAMC is 4th (388.4).  The Lions have the top run defense (123.6), but ASU is right behind at 128.  Angelo has the 2nd best pass defense (208.4) while TAMC is 4th (264.8).  Pass efficiency defensive edge goes to ASU (96.7), while TAMC is 6th at 131.8.

A look at the schedules - ASU has played one team with a winning record and lost (29-20 to MSU), Commerce lost to Delta State (#10 at the time) and beat a pretty good Eastern New Mexico squad.

Recent history - The teams split last year's games, Commerce winning in the regular season 41-40 in San Angelo, the Rams 35-33 in the LSC playoff championship game at Commerce and the Rams won 25-20 in 2013.

This week - expect the offenses to dominate most of this game, but it the game will likely be decided by a big defensive or special teams play.  The Lions are likely extra motivated by the LSC playoff loss last year, because it kept them out of the playoffs, and they would love to replay the favor Saturday.  TAMC 45-42

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Lone Star Conference

Angelo State University

Cameron University

Eastern New Mexico University

Texas A&M-Commerce

Tarleton State University

Texas A&M-Kingsville

Texas Woman's College

University of Texas of the Permian Basin

West Texas A&M University

Western New Mexico